What is El Niño and should South Africans be concerned?

South Africa is experiencing a strong El Niño event that could become unprecedented in magnitude, with forecasts pointing to an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures as the country heads towards mid-summer.

Many are asking what is El Niño, what could it mean for South Africa and should people be concerned?

According to the South African Weather Service (Saws) the El Niño is not in itself a disaster, and a strong El Niño does not automatically mean South Africa will experience severe drought.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-southern oscillation (Enso), a recurring climate pattern involving changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The changes can influence weather patterns in different parts of the world including southern Africa, where El Niño is generally associated with hotter, and in some areas, drier summer conditions.

University of Pretoria professor Willem Landman confirmed South Africa was already experiencing an El Niño event.

“The 2026/27 El Niño is developing into an exceptional event in its timing and magnitude,” Saws said.

Saws has urged the public, farmers and other weather-sensitive industries to follow its monthly seasonal forecast updates as conditions develop

According to the weather service, what makes the current event particularly notable is how early a strong El Niño signal emerged in seasonal forecasts.

“Forecasts issued during late summer 2025/26 indicated the potential development of a strong event with subsequent forecasts showing a consistent increase in its expected magnitude.

“By mid-August 2026, El Niño had become firmly established with persistent and intensifying positive sea-surface temperature anomalies across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,” Saws said.

The event is considered a mature coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon and is rapidly intensifying.

Saws said the rate of warming in the El Niño 3.4 region was “highly unusual”, with observations and forecasts suggesting the event could reach a magnitude unprecedented in the instrumental record.

Forecasts from the University of Pretoria’s CSIRIMM system and the international CCSR-IRI multi-model ensemble indicate a very strong El Niño could peak in late 2026 or early 2027.

Saws cautioned against interpreting the strength of El Niño as a direct measure of how severe its effects will be in South Africa.

“The magnitude of the El Niño should not be interpreted as a direct indication of the magnitude or spatial distribution of impacts over southern Africa,” it said.

The weather service pointed to the strong 2023/24 El Niño which was not associated with the driest El Niño season rainfall recorded across the region.

“The principal regional impacts, particularly on the 2026/27 summer rainfall season, are yet to unfold.”

South Africans should rely on seasonal rainfall and temperature forecasts rather than assume El Niño will automatically result in drought.

Saws lead scientist for long-range forecasting Dr Christien Engelbrecht said seasonal predictions currently indicate an increased probability of below-normal rainfall towards mid-summer.

At the same time, temperature forecasts indicate “very high probabilities” of above-normal temperatures across all three-month periods in the forecasting period.

Saws has urged the public, farmers and other weather-sensitive industries to follow its monthly seasonal forecast updates as conditions develop.

People should also pay attention to daily forecasts, advisories and impact-based weather warnings.

Saws senior manager for disaster risk reduction Rudzani Malala said El Niño itself was not a disaster, but how communities, government and industries prepared for its possible effects was important.

“All signals indicate we are in a very strong El Niño,” Saws said.

The weather service said the stormy spring conditions experienced in parts of the country were consistent with conditions seen during the onset of previous strong El Niño events.

The health sector is preparing for extreme heat through heat health action plans (HHAPs), employing a settings approach that focuses on vulnerable groups, leadership, warning systems, preparedness and monitoring and evaluation —  Saws

However, this does not mean every storm, heatwave or dry spell can be blamed on El Niño. “Individual weather events should be assessed using daily forecasts and impact-based warnings rather than attributed to El Niño alone,” Saws said.

National disaster management centre director for disaster risk assessment and early warning Phumeza Tyali said preparations should begin before potential impacts materialised.

The centre stressed local risk assessments should drive decisions and called for a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach. It also urged against automatically equating El Niño with drought.

“The central message to the media is therefore: Please help us turn information into action,” Saws said.

Foundation for Professional Development representative Celeste Madondo said South Africa is experiencing more frequent, intense and prolonged heat events.

Poor communities, women and young children, elderly people and those living with chronic illnesses were identified as particularly vulnerable.

Extreme weather can contribute to heat-related illnesses, food insecurity and waterborne diseases.

“The health sector is preparing for extreme heat through heat health action plans (HHAPs), employing a settings approach that focuses on vulnerable groups, leadership, warning systems, preparedness and monitoring and evaluation,” Saws said.

The weather service will continue monitoring the developing El Niño and publish monthly seasonal forecasts.