South Africa’s Election: Same Result, New Future?

South Africa’s fifth universal franchise election, which is set for May 7, seems on the surface to be a mundane affair.

The governing African National Congress (ANC) has won all national elections since democracy was established in 1999 and is again expected to win at least 60 percent of the vote this time around. But underneath that headline result, this year’s election could begin to change the country’s future.

Poverty is deep, inequality is the highest in the world, and racial divisions are patent. This election may test the health of South Africa’s democracy—and could trigger the most serious attempt yet to negotiate a way out of the economic patterns of the past.

South African voter preferences are shaped by identity—chiefly race and language, although other identities play a role too. Because identity still coincides with area of residence (white rule segregated residential areas by race, and the effect has only been partly eroded), parties tend to monopolize local fiefdoms.

Helen Zille, leader of the DA, has acknowledged that she expects the ANC to win 60 percent of the vote: Since she has access to reliable polls, and South African parties tend to talk their prospects up, the ANC seems likely to win at least that. While this number would be a come down from the 66 percent it won last time, it is hardly terminal.