Ramifications of an ANC electoral decline

If the once-dominant ANC drops to similar electoral levels to the Democratic Alliance (DA) in the 2026 local government elections, it will fundamentally shift the balance of power within the Government of National Unity.

If the ANC falls below the DA, it will, as far as public perception is concerned, make the DA the largest party in the country, although the ANC would remain the largest party in the national government based on its 39.7% vote in the 2024 national and provincial elections.

In a scenario where the DA levels with the ANC or the ANC falls below the DA, the ANC might be the largest party in the national government, but the DA would have a stronger national base. A controlling win for the MK Party will reduce the provincial power of the ANC even if the ANC is part of the provincial GNU with the DA and the IFP.

ANC leaders to eject him from the South African state presidency when a new ANC party president is elected at the party’s 2027 national elective conference, rather than allowing him to complete the term.