Ramifications of an ANC electoral decline

If the once-dominant ANC drops to similar electoral levels to the Democratic Alliance (DA) in the 4 November 2026 local government polls, it could redraw the balance of power, rattle President Cyril Ramaphosa and reshape coalition politics ahead of the 2029 national and provincial elections.

If the two parties receive similar levels of electoral support, it will essentially make the ANC, in political, state and public perceptions, the equal of the DA.

If the ANC falls below the DA, it will, as far as public perception is concerned, make the DA the largest party in the country, although the ANC would remain the largest party in the national Government of National Unity (GNU).

Where the DA levels with the ANC or the ANC falls below the DA, the ANC might be the largest party in the GNU but it will be seen by voters as a party that has lost a national election, rather than a party that is leading the country.

The results will likely reduce the provincial power of the ANC even if the ANC is part of the provincial GNU with the DA and the IFP.

The MK Party will likely continue to encourage ANC members to give it a try, which would boost the MK Party electoral momentum for the 2029 national and provincial elections.

If the DA does not increase its vote in the local elections, while the ANC declines and the MK Party, PA and EFF rise, voters will perceive the DA as having reached its electoral ceiling.