Ramifications of an ANC electoral decline

If the once-dominant ANC drops to similar electoral levels to the Democratic Alliance (DA) in the 2026 local government elections, it would fundamentally shift the balance of power within the Government of National Unity, potentially destabilizing the ANC presidency at the party’s 2027 national elective conference.

It would also increase the sentiment among ANC leaders to push for a rapprochement with the MK Party and the EFF — if these two parties are willing to engage — as a way to consolidate power and counter the influence of other coalition partners.

The article is based on his discussion on “South Africa’s Next President” at the recent Woordfees in Stellenbosch.