ANC’s last throw of the dice

The ANC has endured a turbulent local election campaign, from failing to field mayoral candidates and tension in the tripartite alliance to concerns over Deputy President Paul Mashatile’s health and secretary-general Fikile Mbalula’s collapse after the Constitutional Court reinstated the 181 candidates the party.

Can the party regain lost ground before the 2029 national elections and remain a key player in coalition governments or will it be relegated to the opposition benches and risk political obscurity?

Polling analysis reported by eNCA paints a similarly fragmented picture. In Johannesburg, Markdata projects the DA will lead with 35% support, followed by the ANC at 22%.

Analyst Wayne Sussman told the Mail and Guardian that the 2026 local elections would also be the last local elections under President Cyril Ramaphosa’s leadership of the party and would be critical for determine who governs. He said the ANC’s failure to field mayoral candidates in several municipalities could hurt its performance.

Don’t choose the mayor, the ANC missed an opportunity by not appointing mayoral candidates,

Sussman said. He said voters wanted to know who would lead their municipalities and that the ANC’s failure to name mayoral candidates, unlike other major parties, could weaken its appeal. However, Sussman noted that the party retained substantial support in rural communities during the 2024 elections, helping it maintain a. Its local election campaign had been underwhelming, pointing to organisational weaknesses, limited funding and internal divisions. The party had also struggled to provide campaign posters for its candidates, he said.