Ramifications of an ANC electoral decline

If the ANC falls below the DA, it will, as far as public perception is concerned, make the DA the largest party in the country, although the ANC would remain the largest party in the national government based on its 39.7% vote in the 2024 national and provincial elections.

In a scenario where the DA levels with the ANC or the ANC falls below the DA, the ANC might be the largest party in state presidency until the 2029 national and provincial elections.

If the ANC does badly in the local elections, Ramaphosa’s ability to use his influence to push for a moderate, constitutional and social democratic ANC candidate to replace him as ANC president will be severely weakened.

A bad electoral performance could strengthen populist groups in the ANC and might propel a populist the ANC presidency at the party’s 2027 national elective conference.

It would also increase the sentiment among ANC leaders to push for a rapprochement with the MK Party and the EFF — if these two