Battle for the metros: ANC and DA fight as MK storms eThekwini (LGE 2026)

As South Africa counts down to the November 4 local government elections, a fresh eNCA MarkData poll is attempting to crystal ball the political fate of two of the country’s most volatile economic hubs: Tshwane and eThekwini. But whether these numbers offer a genuine snapshot of voter sentiment or just another layer of pre-election noise remains a point of contention.

The poll places the MK Party in a strong lead at 48% (with the DA at 25.2% and the ANC languishing at 14.5%), yet insists the party needs a miraculous 2024-style turnout and a simultaneous collapse of other parties to secure an outright majority.

The eNCA MarkData poll presumes a turnout of 48,8% for the election on 4 November, and the margin of error for each metro is about 3%.

Meanwhile, the DA has claimed it is leading in six of South Africa’s eight metros ahead of the local government elections, with its internal polling also putting its national support at 28.4%, just behind the ANC on 29.6%. The party stated on Sunday that the gap between the two parties has narrowed to the point where the “DA is now within striking distance of becoming South Africa’s largest political party”.

In Mangaung, the DA is leading with 36% to the ANC’s 34%. It is only in eThekwini where it is the second-largest party after the MK Party. Analysts suggest that the electoral landscape is more fragmented than in 2016 or 2021, with recent polls suggesting that several metros could again produce councils without an outright majority, forcing parties into complex coalition negotiations.