What the ANC’s terminal decline means for SA

The African National Congress (ANC) is currently experiencing a period of terminal decline, characterized by a significant loss of voter confidence and a weakening of its institutional grip on power. As the party struggles with internal factionalism, corruption, and a failure to address critical issues such as unemployment and service delivery, its electoral support has plummeted to near-record lows.

The ANC is dying, and will lose its parliamentary majority at or before the 2024 national elections, says the head of the unit for risk analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations.

Political analysts suggest that this decline is not merely a temporary setback but a structural failure. The party’s inability to provide a coherent vision or effective governance has led to a rise in protest action and a shift in support toward opposition parties. Furthermore, the internal paralysis within the party, exacerbated by leadership struggles and the erosion of its patronage networks, has left it increasingly unable to maintain its traditional dominance in South African politics.