EXPLAINER | Can Ukraine hold elections while at war?

Here are some of the obstacles that would need to be overcome for Ukraine to hold wartime elections as demanded by the country’s sacked defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he was prepared to hold elections if the US and Kyiv’s European allies could ensure the security of the vote. US President Donald Trump has previously argued that elections should be held.

Ukraine, which last held elections in 2019, has been under martial law since February 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Martial law bans elections for security reasons.

Fighting is raging along more than 1,200km in Ukraine’s east, south and north. Hundreds of Russian drones and missiles regularly pound Ukrainian cities and towns far from the front line. Electricity supplies are disrupted due to Russian attacks on the power sector and other energy infrastructure.

Polls have consistently shown that most Ukrainians oppose the idea of elections during the war.

Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst, said an air ceasefire at the very least was a vital first step to start considering a vote. He said Ukraine would need to create the legislative framework for the elections from scratch, including a new law to spell out timing, rules and procedures. Fesenko estimated that about six months would be required to do that.

Kyiv would also need to pre-empt any possible manipulation attempts by Russia, analysts said.

Russia has said Zelensky is illegitimate because his term ran out in May 2024 and so cannot sign peace deals on Ukraine’s behalf. Trump criticised the lack of elections in an interview with Politico in December, saying it was time for a vote.

Millions of Ukrainians would face difficulties accessing polling stations. Updating the state register of voters to record who can vote and where would be challenging, analysts and officials said.

Data shows that more than 4.4-million Ukrainians had temporary protection status in the EU as of the end of June, requiring Ukraine to organise hundreds of polling stations across Europe.

Just under 4-million Ukrainians were internally displaced within the country, the UN migration agency said last month. Analysts said registering all displaced people would not be straightforward and would divert time and funds from defence.

About 1-million people serve in Ukraine’s defence forces. Arranging a free and fair vote on a drone-infested frontline would be dangerous and may require legislative changes.

Ukrainian officials estimated that as of 2024 4.5-million adult Ukrainians remained behind the frontlines in Russian-occupied territories. Russia controls about 19% of Ukrainian territory and plans to hold its own elections there next month, which Ukraine has said would be illegal.

Zelensky would have a strong chance at re-election, according to polls. Zelensky’s popularity in Ukraine was at about 90% early in the war, but it has since declined to around 60%.

Political analysts and pollsters said Zelensky’s approval ratings were damaged by a major corruption scandal in the energy sector last year, but have since recovered and he remains a frontrunner out of all traditional politicians.

Polls show that Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain and formerly the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, would be a leading challenger to Zelensky, as would presidential chief of staff and the former head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov.

However, Fedorov, a 35-year-old tech-savvy reformer, has also risen in recent polls since his abrupt dismissal last month by Zelensky after just six months as defence minister, which sparked a rare wave of wartime street protests.

Ukraine’s NV media cited a prominent local pollster, SOCIS, predicting Fedorov winning around 13% of the vote with Zaluzhnyi securing 21% and Zelensky at 22%. If Fedorov or Zaluzhnyi were to reach a second round run-off, polls have shown either could beat Zelensky.