Ramifications of an ANC electoral decline

If the once-dominant ANC drops to similar electoral levels to the Democratic Alliance (DA) in the 4 November 2026 local government, it will essentially make the ANC, in political, state and public perceptions, the equal of the DA.

A controlling win for the MK Party will reduce the provincial power of the ANC even if the ANC is part of the provincial GNU with the DA and the IFP.

This would boost the MK Party electoral momentum for the 2029 national and provincial elections.

The ANC majority-government dispensation and that the DA was also not prioritising struggling coloured communities sufficiently.

If the DA does not increase its vote in the local elections, while the ANC declines and the MK Party PA and EFF rise, voters will perceive the DA as having reached its electoral ceiling.

If constitutional and social democratic ANC candidate to replace him as ANC president will be severely weakened, a bad electoral performance could strengthen populist groups in the ANC and might propel a populist candidate into the ANC presidency at the party’s 2027 national elective conference.

It would also increase the sentiment among ANC leaders to push for a rapprochement with the MK Party and the EFF — if these two parties do well in the local government elections.

2027 national elective conference and becomes the state president thereafter, he or she might restructure the GNU to include the EFF and MK Party and exclude the former multiparty charter.