Ramifications of an ANC electoral decline

If the once-dominant ANC drops to similar electoral levels to the Democratic Alliance (DA) in the 4 November 2026 local government elections, it will essentially make the ANC, in political, state and public perceptions, the equal of the DA.

If the ANC falls below the DA, it will, as far as public perception is concerned, make the DA the largest party in the country, although the ANC would remain the largest party in the national Government of National Unity (GNU).

Where the DA levels with the ANC or the ANC falls below the DA, the ANC might be the largest party in the GNU but it will be seen by voters as a party that has lost a national election, rather than a party that is leading the country.

The MK Party will reduce the provincial power of the ANC even if the ANC is part of the provincial GNU with the DA and the IFP. This would boost the MK Party electoral momentum for the 2029 national and provincial elections.

If the DA does not increase its vote in the local elections, while the ANC declines and the MK Party, PA and EFF rise, voters will perceive the DA as having reached its electoral ceiling.

Following the local elections, Ramaphosa’s ability to use his influence to push for a moderate, constitutional and social democratic ANC candidate to replace him as ANC president will be severely weakened. A bad electoral performance could strengthen populist groups in the ANC and might propel a populist candidate into the ANC presidency at the party’s 2027 national elective conference. It would also increase the sentiment among ANC leaders to push for a rapprochement with the MK Party and the EFF — if these two parties do well in the local government elections.